“猜嫌疑忌”：民初的政治心理与政局走向-《南京师大学报》（社会科学版）

文章信息/Info

Title:: Suspicion and Distrust: Political Mentality and Trends in the Early Years of the Republic of China

Keywords:: suspicion; north and south; political mentality; political situation in the early Republic of China

摘要:: 民国肇造，政派之间的猜嫌现象普遍存在，而南北问题又与猜嫌问题相交织，成为其初始时期政治的最大症结。猜嫌问题催生出政界一系列重大人事变动，而这些变动反过来又不断加剧猜嫌现象。作为民国初年政治关键节点的“宋案”亦是在猜嫌中发生，同时又引爆了猜嫌双方的结构性矛盾，最终促成南北分裂预言的自我实现。民初的政治猜嫌有其发生机制：其一是南北妥协所造成权力结构的不确定和权力关系的不稳定，国会和总统的选举预示着权力的更迭；其二是政治游民即各派政客的纵横捭阖和奔走离间，其三是各派之间的情报侦察与报刊不实报道相互作用加剧了谣言的破坏力。

Abstract:: The suspicion and distrust between different political parties were prevalent during the beginning years of the Republic of China. Intertwined with the North-South issue, this distrust became the crux of Chinese politics at that time. The suspicion spawned a series of significant changes of personnel in the political circles, which in turn intensified the distrust. The “Song Case”, which was the key node of the political disputes in the early years of the Republic of China, also occurred in the realm of suspicion. In the meanwhile, this case detonated the structural contradictions between the North and the South, and finally contributed to the separation between the North and the South. In this article, I argue that the mechanism of the political suspicion was due to three factors: firstly, the compromise between the North and the South caused the uncertainty in the power structure; secondly, the political guerrillas destroyed the political balance; finally, the intelligence collection activities conducted by different political parties against each other and false reports of the press aggravated the destructive power of rumors.