中国跨境资金异常流动：监测、驱动与对策-《南京师大学报（社会科学版）》

文章信息/Info

Title:: Abnormal Cross-border Capital Flows in China：Monitoring，Driving Force and Countermeasures

Keywords:: abnormal cross-border capital flow; Order Choice Model; supervision

摘要:: 跨境资金异常流动不仅事关经济金融安全，甚至影响未来国际经济格局。国际金融危机后中国跨境资金异常流动频率有所增大并呈现非对称性。排序选择模型显示套汇是异常资金流动的主要动因，中国的高利率反而刺激了投资者的避险情绪推动了资本外逃；进出口数据的异动会显著掩盖可监测的跨境资金异常流动；中国股市波动、经济增速放缓和美元流动性收紧会引发资本外逃的论断均被证伪；外币贷款会提高资本外逃的概率，但影响亦不显著。国内外经济金融环境对跨境资金异常流出入的冲击具有非对称性，应对资金异常流出给予重点关注，并通过结构性货币政策和市场干预稳定利率和汇率预期、监测贸易数据和外币贷款余额异动、堵塞逃骗汇漏洞以及完善金融监管缓解资金外逃压力。

Abstract:: Abnormal cross-border capital flow in China not only relates to China’s economic and financialsecurity，but also affects the future international economic landscape. By monitoring abnormal cross-bordercapital flow in China，we found that the frequency of abnormal flow increased asymmetrically. An analysis ofthe data by using the Order Choice Model shows：exchange rate arbitrage is the main motivation for abnormalcapital flow；higher interest rates in China stimulate the risk aversion of investors and induces abnormalcapital outflow；and the changes in import and export data reduce the detectable abnormal cross-border capitalflow significantly. Such hypotheses are falsified as the fluctuation of China’s stock market，the slowdown ofeconomic growth and the tightening dollar liquidity trigger capital flight. Foreign currency loans have the effectof increasing the probability of capital flight，though it is not significant. Domestic and international economicand financial factors have asymmetric impacts on the abnormal cross-border capital flow. We should focus onthe abnormal capital flow and alleviate the pressure of capital flight by stabling interest rate and exchange rateexpectations through structural monetary policy and intervention，monitoring the change in the trade data andforeign currency loan balance，plugging up loopholes and improving financial supervision.