[1]周曙东 陈 昕.耕地资源约束下中国农产品进口策略分析——基于虚拟耕地视角的研究[J].南京师大学报(社会科学版),2015,(03):057.
ZHOU Shu-dong,CHEN Xin.On the Import Strategy of China’s Agricultural Products under theConstraint of Arable Land:From the Perspective of Virtual Farmland[J].Journal of Nanjing Normal University (Social Science Edition),2015,(03):057.
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耕地资源约束下中国农产品进口策略分析——基于虚拟耕地视角的研究
《南京师大学报（社会科学版）》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]
- 卷:
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- 期数:
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2015年03期
- 页码:
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057
- 栏目:
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农业经济管理研究
- 出版日期:
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2015-06-15
文章信息/Info
- Title:
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On the Import Strategy of China’s Agricultural Products under theConstraint of Arable Land:From the Perspective of Virtual Farmland
- 作者:
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周曙东 陈 昕*
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南京农业大学经济管理学院,210095;
- Author(s):
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ZHOU Shu-dong; CHEN Xin
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- 关键词:
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虚拟耕地; 农产品; 进口策略; 粮食安全
- Keywords:
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virtual farmland; agricultural commodities; import strategy; food security
- 摘要:
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基于虚拟耕地的视角,本文提出了一种以解决耕地资源短缺为目标的农产品进口策略,并运用中国农业政策分析模型对策略效果进行情景模拟分析。研究表明:实施全面开放的油料大豆进口策略,比基准期节约出176万公顷豆田,其中123万公顷转化为粮田,使谷物自给率提高1.35%; 实施全面开放的油料大豆进口和有限开放的棉花进口策略,比基准期节约出243万公顷棉花、大豆的种植田,其中142万公顷转化为粮田,使谷物自给率提高1.85%; 实施全面开放的油料大豆进口和有限开放的棉花与玉米进口策略,能够优先保证口粮的绝对安全,使稻谷、小麦的自给率分别提高2%和2.2%。最后,提出了相应的政策建议。
- Abstract:
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This paper explores the import strategy of agricultural products for solving China’s arable land shortages from the perspective of virtual farmland, and uses Chinese Agricultural Policy Analysis Model to simulate the strategy effects. The results show, if implementing fully liberalization of soybean imports, China will save 1.76 million hectares of soybean fields, of which 1.23 million hectares converted into grain fields, and grain self-sufficiency rate increased by 1.35%; if along with implementing limited liberalization of cotton imports, China will save 2.43 million hectares of cotton and soybean fields, of which 1.42 million hectares can be converted into grain fields, and grain self-sufficiency rate improved by 1.85%; if further along with implementing limited liberalization of maize imports, China will ensure grain ration security and improve the self-sufficiency of rice and wheat by 2% and 2.2%. According to above results, this paper presents policy suggestions.
备注/Memo
- 备注/Memo:
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* 周曙东,南京农业大学经济管理学院教授、博士生导师,210095; 陈昕,南京农业大学经济管理学院博士研究生、江西农业大学经济管理学院讲师,210095。本文是国家社会科学基金重大项目“粮食安全框架下全球资本、自然资源和技术利用的战略选择研究”(11&ZD046),国家社会科学基金重大项目“农产品安全、气候变暖与农业生产转型研究”(13&ZD160),江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划基金项目“基于虚拟耕地的农产品贸易战略研究”(CXZZ12_0303)的阶段性成果。
更新日期/Last Update:
2015-06-15