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《南京师大学报》（社会科学版）[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:

期数:

2013年03期

页码:

058

栏目:

出版日期:

2013-05-25

文章信息/Info

Title:

Impact of Fiscal Investment on Labor Share and Economic Growth: A CGE Analysis

作者:

董万好^*

Author(s):

DONG Wan-hao

关键词:

大规模财政投资;  劳动报酬;  经济增长;  CGE模型

Keywords:

fiscal investment;  labor share;  economic growth;  CGE model

摘要:

利用CGE模型研究的结果表明:大规模财政投资对劳动报酬及经济增长既有着积极效应也有消极效应。其积极效应正如政策预期一样,实现了大规模财政投资促进经济增长的目标; 其消极效应主要表现在:使得居民的劳动报酬占比下降; 从劳动报酬和政府税收的角度来看,大规模财政投资加剧了“国进民退”; 行业间的增长效应并不一致,石化等少数几个垄断行业受投资影响的增长效应较为明显,其行业劳动报酬占比呈现上升的趋势,同时这些行业的劳动报酬占全国总体劳动报酬的比例也呈上升的趋势; 竞争性行业劳动报酬占比则呈现明显的下降趋势; 大规模财政投资加剧了垄断行业和竞争行业的劳动报酬差距。政府新一轮刺激政策需要考虑到政策的负面影响。

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the impact of fiscal investment on the labor share and economic growth. A CGE analysis of the relevant data shows: the investment policy made by the government has boosted the economic growth, but the economic growth effects are different between different sectors; a small number of monopolized industries like the petrochemical sector have benefited from the government investment policy far more than the competitive industries; the labor share in the monopolized sectors have been on continous rise and accounted for an increasing portion of the overall national labor share. On the contrary, the proportion of the labor share in the competitive sectors has shown a tendency to decline. This clearly indicates that the large scale government investment has exacerbated the income gap between the monopolized and the competitive sectors. Therefore, the new economic stimulus package of the government should take the negative effects of the policy into serious consideration.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:

* 经济学博士,上海财经大学博士后,上海金融学院财税与公共管理学院讲师,201209。本文为国家社科基金重大项目(08&ZD047)子课题三“财政支出利益归宿的可计算一般均衡分析”研究成果。

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更新日期/Last Update: 2013-06-30