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Title:: Is China’s Grain Yield Increase Sustainable?:An Empirical Analysis Based on Stochastic Frontier Model

Keywords:: grain yield increase; stochastic frontier model; potential for increasing yield; efficiency of increasing yield

Abstract:: Through analyzing the panel data of main grain producing areas in China during the period of grain yield increase from 2004 to 2012 by a stochastic frontier approach, we found that the implementation of agricultural machinery and the arable intensification become the driving force for the grain yield increase in the new era. However, as time passes by, traditional factors like labor force, fertilizer input and financial support are playing a weakening role in raising grain yield. On the basis of our measurement of the potential for grain yield increase across China, we found that such potential shows a stable uptrend. Yields in rice, wheat and corn demonstrate a similar tendency. Rice yield potential is improved slowly, while wheat and corn yield potential is improved quickly. Due to the fact that the potential for grain yield has always been on the rise, we came to the conclusion that China’s grain yield increase is sustainable. Additionally, in our investigation period, the efficiency of improving grain yield potential was not evident across China, and that of improving rice and wheat yield potential even went down.