Bankers’ Boundedly Rational Expectations and MacroeconomicFluctuations in China(PDF)
《南京师大学报》（社会科学版）[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]
- Issue:
- 2018年03期
- Page:
- 41-
- Research Field:
- 经济学研究:防控金融风险专题研究
- Publishing date:
Info
- Title:
- Bankers’ Boundedly Rational Expectations and MacroeconomicFluctuations in China
- Author(s):
- YU Zhen; DING Shang-yu; YANG Rui
- Keywords:
- bankers’ expectations; bounded rationality; economic fluctuations; asymmetry; expectationmanagement
- PACS:
- -
- DOI:
- -
- Abstract:
- In this paper，we select the Bankers Macroeconomic Confidence Index from The National BankersSurvey to measure bankers’boundedly rational expectations and use TVAR model and generalized impulseresponse function to verify the influence of bankers’ boundedly rational expectations on economic fluctuations.The main conclusions and enlightenments obtained are as follows.（ 1） The impact of bankers ’expectationson economic fluctuations has asymmetric effect，which is shown as compared with the rational expectationregime；under the regime of the boundedly rational expectation，the economic fluctuations caused by varioustypes of fundamental shocks are larger and the duration periods are longer. Moreover，the deteriorating effectof banker’s pessimistic expectations on the economic recession is much stronger than the promotion effect ofbanker’s optimistic expectations on economic prosperity.（ 2） Different from the other types of shocks，underthe regime of boundedly rational expectation，not only is the impact of price shock on economic fluctuationssuppressed to a great extent，but the opposite direction appears in the response of economic fluctuation aswell（. 3） Bankers ’expectations should not only be used as an important measurement of market participants ’expectations，but also be brought into macro-prudential regulatory policy toolbox to serve building the systemicfinancial risk monitoring and early warning system and the counter-cyclical risk control mechanism.
Last Update: 2018-05-25